The Northern Territory (NT) economy is a small open economy influenced by trade, investment and movements in commodity prices and exchange rates. In this section, analysis is provided on the NT's trade balance, trade in goods and services, national and global conditions, exchange rates, as well as key trading partners and commodities relevant to the NT economy.
Key facts | Trade balance | Major trading partners | Goods exports | Goods imports | Service exports | Service imports | National trade | Global economy | Explanatory notes
The NT has a small open economy that is significantly influenced by external factors, such as investment associated with major projects, economic conditions in trading nations, commodity prices and exchange rates. The structure of the economy reflects the NT’s abundant natural resources, strategic defence significance, tourism attractions and relatively large government and community services sector.
National and international economic activity influences the NT economy through changes to exchange rates, commodity prices, population flows, interstate trade volumes, tourism activity and the availability of workers to meet the NT’s labour requirements. Additionally, monetary policy set by the Reserve Bank of Australia influences household consumption, business confidence and investment in the NT.
Major Asian economies, including Japan, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Republic of Korea and Indonesia, are in close proximity to the NT and have significant trade ties that make them some of the NT’s major trading partners. The NT also relies on goods imports from the United States of America and the European Union, which are also identified as key trading partners.
Key facts
- The NT has recorded a trade surplus for over a decade, mainly due to high value exports related to energy and mineral products.
- In 2024-25, the NT had the second highest level of exports as a share of gross state product (GSP), consistent with the other mining states of Western Australia and Queensland, which highlights the resource-intensive nature of the NT economy (Chart 1).
- The NT’s trade balance mainly consists of goods, with service imports contributing 24.9% to total imports and service exports contributing 6.1% to total exports in 2025-26.
- A depreciation of the Australian dollar makes domestic services relatively cheaper, dampening imports and encouraging exports whereas an appreciation makes foreign services cheaper, boosting imports and reducing exports.
Trade balance 2025-26
- In 2025-26, the NT's trade balance widened by 39.4% to $13.1 billion (Chart 2).
- Net exports of goods widened by 39.4% to $13.1 billion, reflecting a 31.0% decline in goods imports and a 16.7% increase in goods exports.
- Net exports of services increased by 47.1% to $25 million, reflecting a 7.5% increase in service exports and a 6.8% increase in service imports. (Chart 3).
- The value of goods exports increased by 16.7% to $16.2 billion (Chart 4).
Major trading partners
Goods exports
In year-average terms to July 2026:
- The NT's value of exports increased by 5.9% to $14.0 billion.
- Japan was the largest export market for the NT (down by $661 million to $4.8 billion), followed by China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) (up by $1.2 billion to $ 3.8 billion), and Republic of Korea (up by $372 million to $1.7 billion) (Chart 5).
- Main commodities exported from the NT were confidential items (most likely liquefied natural gas), metalliferous ores and metal , and petroleum products.
Goods imports
In year-average terms to July 2026:
- The NT's value of imports declined by 60.8% to $2.3 billion.
- The largest import markets were Singapore (down by $3.0 billion to $526 million), Malaysia (down by $43 million to $473 million), and China (up by $19 million to $196 million) (Chart 6).
- Main commoditie s imported to the NT were transport equipment (excluding road vehicles), petroleum products and confidential items.
Service exports
- Increased by 7.5% to $1.045 billion in 2025-26.
- The major components of the NT's international service exports include personal travel and government goods and services.
Service imports
- Increased by 6.8% to $1.020 million in 2025-26.
- The major components of the NT's international service imports include personal travel and freight.
National trade
In year-average terms to July 2026 :
- Australia's balance of goods trade declined by 58.8% to $23.1 billion.
- This reflects an increase in the value of goods imported (up by 11.8% to $513.4 billion), partly offset by an increase in the value of goods exported (up by 4.2% to $536.5 billion).
Global economy
- The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook, released July 2026, notes that the global economy is being shaped by two opposing forces: the negative supply shock from the war in the Middle East and positive momentum from the global technology cycle, particularly advances in and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).
- Global growth is projected to be 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, broadly unchanged on a cumulative basis compared with the IMF April 2026 outlook. The modest slowdown in 2026 reflects the effects of the Middle East conflict, partly offset by stronger AI-related investment and technology activity.
- World trade volume growth is projected to slow from 5.0% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026, before recovering to 4.3% in 2027, reflecting earlier front-loading, the drag from tariffs and adjustments in global trade and production chains.
- Global headline inflation is projected to rise from 4.7% in 2026, before recovering to 3.9% in 2027. The 2026 and 2027 forecasts have been revised up by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, from the April 2026 outlook, mainly reflecting higher energy and food prices.
- Risks to the global outlook are more balanced than in April but remian tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include renewed Middle East conflict, commodity price and supply-chain disruptions, trade fragmentation, weaker policy buffers and a correction in technology-driven expectations.
- Upside risks include a faster-than-expected normalisation in energymarkets, stronger technology investment, progress in international cooperation and structural reforms that raise medium-term growth.
- For more information and analysis on the global economy, visit the IMF website.
- For more information regarding exchange rates and commodity type and prices, see the Reserve Bank of Australia and World Bank websites.
Explanatory notes
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on the NT’s trade balance annually. This is in line with the GSP expenditure measure.
- International trade statistics are based on monthly data published by the ABS. This release provides preliminary estimates of Australia’s international goods and services on a balance of payments basis, and merchandise import and export statistics on an international merchandise trade basis.
- A large proportion of trade data has been confidentialised by the ABS. Data can be confidentialised by the source if a supplier’s privacy is easily identified, for example, the NT only has one exporter of uranium. Recent changes in classification of confidential items have further increased the proportion of confidentialised NT data.
- International service exports represents income received by local businesses from overseas travelers, foreign businesses, foreign students and foreign government personnel (mostly defence) for services provided including meals, education, accommodation, entertainment and tourism activities. Service imports reflect expenditure by Territorians on services provided overseas. The ABS releases data for the NT’s services trade on a biannual basis, based on the most current financial year and calendar year results.
- The IMF publishes a WEO report biannually, which consists of an analyses by IMF staff economists on global economic developments during the near and medium term. An associated WEO database is released along with the WEO report, which presents the IMF staff’s analysis and forecasts of economic developments at the global level. The IMF also releases quarterly updates on global economic developments. These are not a full WEO report and do not include an update on the analysis and forecasts published in a full WEO report.
- The World Bank releases data on commodities and their prices on a monthly basis.