The Northern Territory (NT) economy is a small open economy influenced by trade, investment and movements in commodity prices and exchange rates. In this section, analysis is provided on the NT's trade balance, trade in goods and services, national and global conditions, exchange rates, as well as key trading partners and commodities relevant to the NT economy.
Key facts | Trade balance | Major trading partners | Goods exports | Goods imports | Service exports | Service imports | National trade | Global economy | Explanatory notes
The NT has a small open economy that is significantly influenced by external factors, such as investment associated with major projects, economic conditions in trading nations, commodity prices and exchange rates. The structure of the economy reflects the NT’s abundant natural resources, strategic defence significance, tourism attractions and relatively large government and community services sector.
National and international economic activity influences the NT economy through changes to exchange rates, commodity prices, population flows, interstate trade volumes, tourism activity and the availability of workers to meet the NT’s labour requirements. Additionally, monetary policy set by the Reserve Bank of Australia influences household consumption, business confidence and investment in the NT.
Major Asian economies, including Japan, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Republic of Korea and Indonesia, are in close proximity to the NT and have significant trade ties that make them some of the NT’s major trading partners. The NT also relies on goods imports from the United States of America and the European Union, which are also identified as key trading partners.
Key facts
- The NT has recorded a trade surplus for over a decade, mainly due to high value exports related to energy and mineral products.
- In 2022-23, the NT had the second highest level of exports as a share of gross state product (GSP), consistent with the other mining states of Western Australia and Queensland, which highlights the resource-intensive nature of the NT economy (Chart 1).
- The NT’s trade balance mainly consists of goods, with service imports contributing 10.1% to total imports and service exports contributing 3.6% to total exports.
A depreciation in the Australian dollar may decrease (increase) demand for service imports (exports) as domestic services become relatively more affordable.
Trade balance 2022-23
- In 2022-23, the NT's trade balance fell by 26.8% to $10.0 billion
(Chart 2). - Net exports of goods decreased by 26.3% to $9.9 billion, reflecting a 25.1% decrease in goods exports, partly offset by a 22.0% decrease in goods imports. A decrease in imports improves the trade balance.
- Net exports of services decreased by 72.0% to $42 million, reflecting a 112.3% increase in service imports, partly offset by a 39.2% increase in service exports (Chart 3).
- The decrease in the value of goods exports to $14.2 billion reflects a decrease in confidential items (down by 18.6%) (Chart 4).
Major trading partners
Goods exports
In year-average terms to August 2024:
- The NT's value of exports declined by 19.8% to $13.5 billion.
- Japan was the largest export market for the NT (down by $1.5 billion to $6.1 billion), followed by China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) (up by $366 million to $2.6 billion) and Taiwan (down by $534 million to $1.8 billion) (Chart 5).
- Main commodities exported from the NT were confidential items (most likely liquefied natural gas) (60.6%), petroleum and petroleum-related materials (14.0%) and gas, natural and manufactured (9.5%).
Goods imports
In year-average terms to August 2024:
- The NT's value of imports rose by 37.5% to $2.8 billion.
- The largest import markets were Singapore (up by $483 million to $659 million), Malaysia (up by $255 million to $566 million) and United States of America (up by $195 million to $293 million) (Chart 6).
- Main commodities imported to the NT were petroleum and petroleum-related products (43.9%), confidential items (13.4%) and transport equipment (excl. road vehicles) (10.2%).
Service exports
- Increased by 50.3% to $899 million in 2023.
- The major components of the NT's international service exports include personal travel and government goods and services.
Service imports
- Increased by 26.0% to $499 million in 2023.
- The major components of the NT's international service imports include personal travel and freight.
National trade
In year-average terms to August 2024:
- Australia's balance of goods trade declined by 42.1% to $84.3 billion.
- This reflects an increase in the value of goods imported (up by 2.2% to $446.8 billion) and a decline in the value of goods exported (down by 8.8% to $531.2 billion).
Global economy
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) July 2024 forecasts global economic growth to be 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, unchanged from the April 2024 WEO forecasts.
- Global economic growth is expected to remain stable with the pace of disinflation to slow down as services inflation is anticipated to be more persistent and commodity prices higher.
- Risks to growth include inflation remaining elevated for a prolonged period of time on the back of price pressures emerging from the services sector and geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in economic policy due to elections this year.
- For more information and analysis on the global economy, visit the IMF website.
- For more information regarding exchange rates and commodity type and prices, see the Reserve Bank of Australia and World Bank websites.
Explanatory notes
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on the NT’s trade balance annually. This is in line with the GSP expenditure measure.
- International trade statistics are based on monthly data published by the ABS. This release provides preliminary estimates of Australia’s international goods and services on a balance of payments basis, and merchandise import and export statistics on an international merchandise trade basis.
- A large proportion of trade data has been confidentialised by the ABS. Data can be confidentialised by the source if a supplier’s privacy is easily identified, for example, the NT only has one exporter of uranium. Recent changes in classification of confidential items have further increased the proportion of confidentialised NT data.
- International service exports represents income received by local businesses from overseas travelers, foreign businesses, foreign students and foreign government personnel (mostly defence) for services provided including meals, education, accommodation, entertainment and tourism activities. Service imports reflect expenditure by Territorians on services provided overseas. The ABS releases data for the NT’s services trade on a biannual basis, based on the most current financial year and calendar year results.
- The IMF publishes a WEO report biannually, which consists of an analyses by IMF staff economists on global economic developments during the near and medium term. An associated WEO database is released along with the WEO report, which presents the IMF staff’s analysis and forecasts of economic developments at the global level. The IMF also releases quarterly updates on global economic developments. These are not a full WEO report and do not include an update on the analysis and forecasts published in a full WEO report.
- The World Bank releases data on commodities and their prices on a monthly basis.