The Northern Territory (NT) economy is a small open economy influenced by trade, investment and movements in commodity prices and exchange rates. In this section, analysis is provided on the NT's trade balance, trade in goods and services, national and global conditions, exchange rates, as well as key trading partners and commodities relevant to the NT economy.
Key facts | Trade balance | Major trading partners | Goods exports | Goods imports | Service exports | Service imports | National trade | Global economy | Explanatory notes
The NT has a small open economy that is significantly influenced by external factors, such as investment associated with major projects, economic conditions in trading nations, commodity prices and exchange rates. The structure of the economy reflects the NT’s abundant natural resources, strategic defence significance, tourism attractions and relatively large government and community services sector.
National and international economic activity influences the NT economy through changes to exchange rates, commodity prices, population flows, interstate trade volumes, tourism activity and the availability of workers to meet the NT’s labour requirements. Additionally, monetary policy set by the Reserve Bank of Australia influences household consumption, business confidence and investment in the NT.
Major Asian economies, including Japan, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Republic of Korea and Indonesia, are in close proximity to the NT and have significant trade ties that make them some of the NT’s major trading partners. The NT also relies on goods imports from the United States of America and the European Union, which are also identified as key trading partners.
Key facts
- The NT has recorded a trade surplus for over a decade, mainly due to high value exports related to energy and mineral products.
- In 2023-24, the NT had the second highest level of exports as a share of gross state product (GSP), consistent with the other mining states of Western Australia and Queensland, which highlights the resource-intensive nature of the NT economy (Chart 1).
- The NT’s trade balance mainly consists of goods, with service imports contributing 17.1% to total imports and service exports contributing 5.9% to total exports.
A depreciation in the Australian dollar may decrease (increase) demand for service imports (exports) as domestic services become relatively more affordable.
Trade balance 2023-24
- In 2023-24, the NT's trade balance rose by 14.1% to $13.3 billion
(Chart 2). - Net exports of goods rose by 13.1% to $13.1 billion, reflecting a 5.1% rise in goods exports and a 13.0% decline in goods imports. A decline in imports improves the trade balance.
- Net exports of services rose by 201.5% to $199 million, reflecting a 40.9% rise in service exports, partly offset by a 26.2% rise in service imports. (Chart 3).
- The decline in the value of goods exports to $14.0 billion reflects a decline in confidential items (down by 32.0%) (Chart 4).
Major trading partners
Goods exports
In year-average terms to October 2024:
- The NT's value of exports declined by 22.5% to $12.4 billion.
- Japan was the largest export market for the NT (down by $2.1 billion to $5.1 billion), followed by China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) (down by $165 million to $2.3 billion) Taiwan (down by $477 million to $1.8 billion) (Chart 5).
- Main commodities exported from the NT were confidential items (most likely liquefied natural gas) (58.0%), petroleum and petroleum-related materials (14.9%), metalliferous ores and metal scrap (10.9%).
Goods imports
In year-average terms to October 2024:
- The NT's value of imports rose by 33.8% to $2.8 billion.
- The largest import markets were Singapore (up by $368 million to $630 million), Malaysia (up by $60 million to $485 million), and United States of America (up by $233 million to $331 million) (Chart 6).
- Main commodities imported to the NT were petroleum and petroleum-related products (39.2%), confidential items (15.2%) and transport equipment (excl. road vehicles) (11.0%).
Service exports
- Increased by 43.4% to $1.1 billion in 2023-24.
- The major components of the NT's international service exports include personal travel and government goods and services.
Service imports
- Increased by 24.9% to $902 million in 2023-24.
- The major components of the NT's international service imports include personal travel and freight.
National trade
In year-average terms to October 2024:
- Australia's balance of goods trade declined by 40.1% to $78.3 billion.
- This reflects a decline in the value of goods exported (down by 8.0% to $522.6 billion) and a rise in the value of goods imported (up by 1.6% to $444.3 billion).
Global economy
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) October 2024 forecasts global economic growth to be 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, compared to growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 from the July 2024 WEO forecasts.
- Global economic growth is expected to remain stable with the pace of disinflation to slow down as services price inflation remains elevated in many regions. Advanced economies are anticipated to return to their inflation targets sooner than emerging markets and develop economies.
- Risks to growth include inflation remaining elevated for a prolonged period of time on the back of price pressures emerging from the services sector and geopolitical tensions and potential financial instability in China's property sector.
- For more information and analysis on the global economy, visit the IMF website.
- For more information regarding exchange rates and commodity type and prices, see the Reserve Bank of Australia and World Bank websites.
Explanatory notes
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on the NT’s trade balance annually. This is in line with the GSP expenditure measure.
- International trade statistics are based on monthly data published by the ABS. This release provides preliminary estimates of Australia’s international goods and services on a balance of payments basis, and merchandise import and export statistics on an international merchandise trade basis.
- A large proportion of trade data has been confidentialised by the ABS. Data can be confidentialised by the source if a supplier’s privacy is easily identified, for example, the NT only has one exporter of uranium. Recent changes in classification of confidential items have further increased the proportion of confidentialised NT data.
- International service exports represents income received by local businesses from overseas travelers, foreign businesses, foreign students and foreign government personnel (mostly defence) for services provided including meals, education, accommodation, entertainment and tourism activities. Service imports reflect expenditure by Territorians on services provided overseas. The ABS releases data for the NT’s services trade on a biannual basis, based on the most current financial year and calendar year results.
- The IMF publishes a WEO report biannually, which consists of an analyses by IMF staff economists on global economic developments during the near and medium term. An associated WEO database is released along with the WEO report, which presents the IMF staff’s analysis and forecasts of economic developments at the global level. The IMF also releases quarterly updates on global economic developments. These are not a full WEO report and do not include an update on the analysis and forecasts published in a full WEO report.
- The World Bank releases data on commodities and their prices on a monthly basis.