The Northern Territory (NT) economy is a small open economy influenced by trade, investment and movements in commodity prices and exchange rates. In this section, analysis is provided on the NT's trade balance, trade in goods and services, national and global conditions, exchange rates, as well as key trading partners and commodities relevant to the NT economy.
Key facts | Trade balance | Major trading partners | Goods exports | Goods imports | Service exports | Service imports | National trade | Global economy | Explanatory notes
The NT has a small open economy that is significantly influenced by external factors, such as investment associated with major projects, economic conditions in trading nations, commodity prices and exchange rates. The structure of the economy reflects the NT’s abundant natural resources, strategic defence significance, tourism attractions and relatively large government and community services sector.
National and international economic activity influences the NT economy through changes to exchange rates, commodity prices, population flows, interstate trade volumes, tourism activity and the availability of workers to meet the NT’s labour requirements. Additionally, monetary policy set by the Reserve Bank of Australia influences household consumption, business confidence and investment in the NT.
Major Asian economies, including Japan, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Republic of Korea and Indonesia, are in close proximity to the NT and have significant trade ties that make them some of the NT’s major trading partners. The NT also relies on goods imports from the United States of America and the European Union, which are also identified as key trading partners.
Key facts
- The NT has recorded a trade surplus for over a decade, mainly due to high value exports related to energy and mineral products.
- In 2024-25, the NT had the second highest level of exports as a share of gross state product (GSP), consistent with the other mining states of Western Australia and Queensland, which highlights the resource-intensive nature of the NT economy (Chart 1).
- The NT’s trade balance mainly consists of goods, with service imports contributing 18.0% to total imports and service exports contributing 6.9% to total exports.
- A depreciation of the Australian dollar makes domestic services relatively cheaper, dampening imports and encouraging exports whereas an appreciation makes foreign services cheaper, boosting imports and reducing exports.
Trade balance 2024-25
- In 2024-25, the NT's trade balance narrowed by 8.2% to $9.4 billion (Chart 2).
- Net exports of goods narrowed by 6.5% to $9.4 billion, reflecting an 11.8% increase in goods imports and a 1.3% decline in goods exports. A rise in imports deteriorates the trade balance.
- Net exports of services declined by 80.6% to $46 million, reflecting a 9.3% decline in service exports and a 9.6% rise in service imports. (Chart 3).
- The value of goods exports declined by 7.5% to $12.9 billion, reflecting a decline in confidential items and other exports (Chart 4).
Major trading partners
Goods exports
In year-average terms to February 2026:
- The NT's value of exports increased by 8.1% to $13.1 billion.
- Japan was the largest export market for the NT (down by $9 million to $5 billion), followed by China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) (up by $799 million to $3 billion), and Taiwan (down by $414 million to $1.4 billion) (Chart 5).
- Main commodities exported from the NT were confidential items (most likely liquefied natural gas) (72.6%), metalliferous ores and metal scrap (12.7%) and petroleum and petroleum-related materials (6%).
Goods imports
In year-average terms to February 2026:
- The NT's value of imports rose by 91.7% to $5.6 billion.
- The largest import markets were Singapore (up by $2.8 billion to $3.5 billion), the United States of America (up by $152 million to $512 million), and Malaysia (down by $8 million to $431million) (Chart 6).
- Main commodities imported to the NT were transport equipment (excluding road vehicles) (60.1%), petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (18.2%) and road vehicles including air-cushion vehicles (4.7%).
Service exports
- Declined by 9.3% to $1.0 billion in 2024-25.
- The major components of the NT's international service exports include personal travel and government goods and services.
Service imports
- Increased by 9.6% to $980 million in 2024-25.
- The major components of the NT's international service imports include personal travel and freight.
National trade
In year-average terms to February 2026 :
- Australia's balance of goods trade declined by 18.3% to $47.2 billion.
- This reflects an increase in the value of goods imported (up by 6.1% to $480.2 billion partly offset by an increase in the value of goods exported (up by 3.3% to $527.4 billion).
Global economy
- The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook, released April 2026, presents the Middle East conflict as the primary downside risk to the global economy, alongside elevated uncertainty related to trade policy settings.
- Global growth is projected to be 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 (down 0.2 percentage points in 2026, and unchanged in 2027, compared with the IMF January 2026 outlook) assuming the conflict is limited in duration and intensity and geopolitical environment easing by mid-2026. The downward revision reflects the economic effects of higher energy prices and supply disruptions to the growth primarily caused by Middle East conflict.
- Global headline inflation is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027 (up by 0.6 percentage points in 2026, compared to IMF January 2026 outlook) reflecting higher energy and food prices.
- The IMF presents two scenarios in the event of a more prolonged and severe conflict that results in sustained damage to the energy infrastructure.
- Under the adverse scenario, oil price increases persist, resulting in global growth slowing to 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027 (down 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively). The inflation expectation for this scenario is estimated to be 5.4% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.
- The severe scenario assumes greater damage to energy infrastructure and global growth declines to 2% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027 (down 1.3 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively). In this scenarios, global inflation is expected to be 5.8% in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027.
- Risks to the global economy remain titled to the downside from renewed supply chain disruptions and increasing fiscal and financial vulnerabilities.
- Upside risks include an uplift in AI-related investment, productivity gains and increased business activities. The IMF also notes structural reforms, enhanced fiscal buffers and international cooperation could support resilience and mitigate longer-term impacts to the global economy growth.
- For more information and analysis on the global economy, visit the IMF website.
- For more information regarding exchange rates and commodity type and prices, see the Reserve Bank of Australia and World Bank websites.
Explanatory notes
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on the NT’s trade balance annually. This is in line with the GSP expenditure measure.
- International trade statistics are based on monthly data published by the ABS. This release provides preliminary estimates of Australia’s international goods and services on a balance of payments basis, and merchandise import and export statistics on an international merchandise trade basis.
- A large proportion of trade data has been confidentialised by the ABS. Data can be confidentialised by the source if a supplier’s privacy is easily identified, for example, the NT only has one exporter of uranium. Recent changes in classification of confidential items have further increased the proportion of confidentialised NT data.
- International service exports represents income received by local businesses from overseas travelers, foreign businesses, foreign students and foreign government personnel (mostly defence) for services provided including meals, education, accommodation, entertainment and tourism activities. Service imports reflect expenditure by Territorians on services provided overseas. The ABS releases data for the NT’s services trade on a biannual basis, based on the most current financial year and calendar year results.
- The IMF publishes a WEO report biannually, which consists of an analyses by IMF staff economists on global economic developments during the near and medium term. An associated WEO database is released along with the WEO report, which presents the IMF staff’s analysis and forecasts of economic developments at the global level. The IMF also releases quarterly updates on global economic developments. These are not a full WEO report and do not include an update on the analysis and forecasts published in a full WEO report.
- The World Bank releases data on commodities and their prices on a monthly basis.