This page provides analysis on the Northern Territory’s (NT) population and its key components of natural increase, net interstate migration and net overseas migration. This page also provides population statistics on the Territory’s regions and Aboriginal cohort.
| Key facts | Components of population growth | Regional population | Aboriginal population | Population characteristics | Explanatory notes
Key facts
- The Territory’s estimated resident population grew by 0.2% to 254,263 in the March quarter 2024.
- Net interstate migration (-1,061 persons) detracted from population growth while natural increase (+683 persons) and net overseas migration (+826 persons) contributed to population growth.
- In the year ending March 2024, the Territory’s population increased by 0.8%.
Components of population growth
Population growth comprises natural increase, net interstate migration and net overseas migration. Historically natural increase is the largest contributor to annual population growth in the Territory followed by overseas migration while interstate migration generally detracts from population growth.
Natural increase
In the March quarter 2024:
- the Territory recorded a natural increase of 683 persons, comprising 948 births and 265 deaths.
In the year to March 2024:
- natural increase contributed 2,182 persons to the Territory's population, a increase of 1.6% compared to the previous year.
Demographic patterns
Natural increase is the most stable component of the NT’s population growth, and has been the major driver of growth over the past 20 years. The greater contribution reflects a younger age profile and higher fertility (the average number of births per woman) in both the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population. However, fertility is declining at a similar rate to the national trend as fewer women are having fewer babies.
Interstate migration
In the March quarter 2024:
- net interstate migration detracted 1,061 persons from the population
- there were 4,476 departures from, and 3,415 arrivals to, the Territory in the quarter.
In the year to March 2024:
- net interstate migration detracted 4,087 persons from the population, an increase on the net loss of 2,745 persons in the previous year.
Demographic patterns
Net interstate migration is highly volatile and tends to detract from NT population growth. Migration to and from the NT varies by sex and age group. The largest cohorts moving in and out of the NT in a given year are generally those who are in their 20s and early 30s. Arrivals and departures to and from the NT are influenced by a range of factors including economic and labour market conditions, lifestyle, housing prices and location of family.
In 2022-23:
- the NT’s population had greater interstate mobility than any other jurisdiction, with an interstate migration rate of about 12.5% per annum (31,510 persons), compared with about 2% to 3% across most states
- Queensland was the Territory’s largest market for both arrivals and departures, accounting for 28.9% (9,090 persons) of all movers, followed by Victoria (6,599 persons) and New South Wales (5,731 persons)
- the Territory had a net inflow from New South Wales of 413 persons
- there were strong net outflows to Queensland (1,784 persons), Western Australia (974 persons) and South Australia (636 persons) recorded.
Overseas migration
In the March quarter 2024:
- net overseas migration contributed 826 persons to the population.
In the year to March 2024:
- net overseas migration in the Territory contributed 3,920 persons, an improvement compared to the net gain of 3,321 persons in the previous year.
Demographic patterns
Overseas migration generally contributes to the NT’s population, although at a lower rate relative to the eastern seaboard states. The impact of COVID-19 border restrictions has caused significant disruption to usual migration flows with net overseas migration significantly contracting in 2020 and 2021.
Prior to COVID-19, permanent and temporary migration visa streams were the main drivers of net overseas migration, contributing on average 1,800 persons per annum between 2016 and 2019, while Australian citizens and ‘other’ visa holders were the main detractors.
Regional population
The ABS provides annual regional population data for the financial year. Growth patterns across the NT can be broadly split between greater Darwin and the rest of NT, with the former generally outperforming the latter.
Greater Darwin
In 2022-23:
- population growth in Greater Darwin was 1.1%
- Palmerston, Litchfield, Darwin city and Darwin suburbs recorded growth of 1.6%, 1.3% and 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.
Rest of the NT
In 2022-23:
- population in the Rest of NT grew by 0.7%
- Alice Springs and Daly-Tiwi-West Arnhem and East Arnhem recorded growth of 1.1% and 0.8% respectively
- Population growth in the other regions was lower at 0.6% (East Arnhem), 0.2% (Barkly) and 0.1% (Katherine).
The Department of the Chief Minister and Cabinet also produce detailed information on remote communities in the NT, including population estimates. For further information, see the NT Government’s Bushtel website.
Aboriginal population
The ABS estimates the Aboriginal population every five years following a census. Final Aboriginal ERP following the 2021 Census was released in August 2023.
Following the 2021 Census:
- at 30 June 2021, there were an estimated 76,487 Aboriginal people living in the NT, representing approximately 30.8% of the NT’s population and 7.8% of the national Aboriginal population
- between 2016 and 2021, the NT’s Aboriginal population grew by 2.6%, the lowest rate of growth among the jurisdictions and below the national growth of 23.2%
- the rise in the growth of national Aboriginal populations appear to be attributed to an increase in the number of people identifying as Aboriginal.
- 74.6% of the NT’s Aboriginal population lived in remote or very remote areas, down from 76.6% as at June 2016, reflecting a general trend nationally of declining Aboriginal population in remote areas and increasing Aboriginal population in urbanised regions.
- a far greater proportion of the NT’s Aboriginal population live in remote and very remote areas than the jurisdiction with the next highest proportion (Western Australia with 33.2%)
- Nationally, the proportion of Aboriginal people living in remote and very remote areas declined from 18.6% in 2016 to 15.3% in 2021.
Population characteristics
The NT’s population accounts for about 1% of the Australian population, with the majority residing in the greater Darwin area, and the remainder dispersed over remote and very remote areas. At 30 June 2021, the Aboriginal population was estimated at 76,487, which represents about 30.8% of the Territory’s population, many of whom reside in remote and very remote areas.
The NT’s population is characterised by its young age profile which reflects a large number of persons aged 25 to 34 years in the NT, as well as the NT’s large Aboriginal population which, at 30 June 2021, had a median age of 27 years compared with 36 years for the non‑Aboriginal population.
A further characteristic of the NT’s population is that males outnumber females. This is partly due to the prevalence of male‑dominated industries such as mining, construction and defence, as well as the workforce demands of major projects.
Population growth in the NT is significantly more volatile than growth in the Australian population. Over the long term, the NT’s population growth has been predominantly driven by natural increase and net overseas migration. Fluctuations in the Territory’s annual population growth rate are largely due to variations in interstate migration, which typically fluctuates with employment opportunities.
Explanatory notes
- Population statistics are based on data reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
- Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official measure of the population of Australia. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality, citizenship or legal status, who usually live in Australia, with the exception of foreign military or diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents who are overseas for less than 12 months over a 16-month period.
- Every five years, the ABS conducts a census of Australia which provides a comprehensive snapshot of Australia's economic, social and cultural make-up. It includes a count every person and household in the country and provides information on small geographic areas and population groups.
- The Department of Treasury and Finance provide quarterly population economic briefs about the NT’s resident population, and have developed population projections to the year 2046.
- The Northern Territory Population Growth Strategy 2018-2028 provides a framework for attracting people to the Territory, and encouraging those already here to stay for the long term.