Population

This section provides analysis on the Northern Territory's (NT) population, including population characteristics and key components of population growth such as natural increase, net interstate migration and net overseas migration.

| Key facts | Components of population growth | Regional population | Aboriginal population | Population characteristics | Explanatory notes

Key facts

• The Territory’s estimated resident population decreased by 0.2% (442 persons) to 249,345 persons in the December quarter 2021
• Natural increase (+478 persons) and net overseas migration (+113 persons) contributed to growth while net interstate migration (-1,033 persons) detracted from growth
• In annual terms, the Territory population increased by 0.1%
• The December quarter 2021 statistics include a rebased 30 June 2021 estimated resident population following the
  release of 2021 Census data. The Territory's estimated resident population as at 30 June 2021 was rebased from 245,909 to 249,200 (+3,291 persons).

Components of population growth

Population growth comprises natural increase, net interstate migration and net overseas migration. Historically natural increase is the largest contributor to annual population growth in the Territory followed by overseas migration while interstate migration generally detracts from population growth.

Natural increase

In the December quarter 2021:

• the Territory recorded a positive natural increase of 478 persons, comprising 853 births and 375 deaths.

In the year to December 2021:

• natural net interstate migration detracted 3,420 persons from the population, a 104.9% worsening on the net loss of 1,669 persons in the previous year.

Demographic patterns

Natural increase is the difference between the number of births and deaths, illustrating population change in the absence of migration. Natural increase is the most stable component of the NT’s population growth, and has been the major driver of growth over the past 20 years.

Interstate migration

In the December quarter 2021:

• net interstate migration detracted 1,033 persons from the population, a worsening on the net loss of 543 persons in the December quarter
• there were 4,841 arrivals to, and 5,874 departures from, the Territory in the quarter.

In the year to December 2021:

• net interstate migration detracted 3,420 persons from the population, a 104.9% worsening on the net loss of 1,669 persons in the previous year.

Demographic patterns

Net interstate migration is highly volatile and tends to detract from NT population growth. Arrivals and departures to and from the NT are influenced by a range of factors including economic and labour market conditions, lifestyle, housing prices and location of family.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also caused significant disruption to usual migration flows with border closures and various quarantine requirements impacting migration intentions. In the year to March 2021, the Territory experienced an improvement in net interstate migration largely driven by falling interstate departures. Over the June and September quarters 2021, the Territory saw the improvements in net interstate migration largely reverse as the Territory recorded unusually high interstate migration levels.

The higher than usual interstate migration levels relate to Australia’s COVID-19 vaccination drive and the resulting widespread updating of Medicare residential records, which is used by ABS to estimate interstate migration.

The ABS also provide annual preliminary data on internal migration movements between the jurisdictions and population characteristics.

In 2020-21:

• the NT’s population had greater interstate mobility than any other jurisdiction, with an interstate migration rate of about 13% per annum (30,897 persons), compared with about 2% to 5% across most states (Chart 5)
• Queensland was the Territory’s largest market for both arrivals and departures, accounting for 30% (9,367 persons) of all movers, followed by New South Wales (5,960 persons) and Victoria (5,911 persons)
• there were strong net outflows to Queensland (1,529 persons), South Australia (606 persons) and Western Australia (445 persons) recorded.

Migration to and from the NT varies by sex and age group. The largest cohorts moving in and out of the NT in a given year are generally those who are in their 20s and early 30s.

Overseas migration

In the December quarter 2021:

• net overseas migration contributed 113 persons to the population.

In the year to December 2021:

• net overseas migration in the Territory contributed 741 persons, an improvement compared to the net gain of 61 persons in the previous year.

Demographic patterns

Overseas migration generally contributes to the NT’s population, although at a lower rate relative to the eastern seaboard states. The impact of COVID-19 border restrictions has caused significant disruption to usual migration flows with net overseas migration significantly contracting in 2020.

Prior to COVID-19, permanent and temporary migration visa streams were the main drivers of net overseas migration, contributing on average 900 persons per annum between 2016 and 2019, while Australian citizens and ‘other’ visa holders were the main detractors. Over this period, overseas migration had been moderating, falling from a peak of contributing 0.9ppt to growth in 2016 to 0.4ppt in 2019.

Regional population

The ABS provides annual regional population data for the financial year. Growth patterns across the NT can be broadly split between greater Darwin and the rest of NT, with the former generally outperforming the latter.

Greater Darwin

In 2020-21:

• population growth in Greater Darwin was flat (chart 9)
• Palmerston recorded growth of 1.4%, while Darwin city, Darwin suburbs and Litchfield recorded population declines of 0.2%, 0.2% and 1.8% respectively.

Rest of the NT

In 2020-21:

• population in the Rest of NT grew by 0.3%
• Alice Springs and Katherine recorded growth of 0.7% and 0.1% respectively
• Population growth in the other regions were flat except for Barkly which declined by 0.5%.

The Department of the Chief Minister and Cabinet also produce detailed information on remote communities in the NT, including population estimates. For further information, see the NT Government’s Bushtel website.

Aboriginal population

The ABS estimates the Aboriginal population every five years following a census. Final Aboriginal ERP following the 2016 Census was released in August 2018, including estimates for remoteness areas.

• At 30 June 2016 there were an estimated 74,546 Aboriginal people living in the NT, which represents 30.3% of the NT’s population and 9.3% of the national Aboriginal population.
• Between 2011 and 2016, the NT’s Aboriginal population grew by 8.3%, the lowest rate of growth among jurisdictions and below national growth of 19.2% (Table 2).
• The rise in growth of national Aboriginal populations can be attributed to an increase in the number of people identifying as Aboriginal. In addition, children born to parents of ‘mixed heritage’ are increasingly identified as Aboriginal. Both of these factors tend to be more prevalent in Australia’s metropolitan centres.
• At June 2016, 76.6% of the NT’s Aboriginal population lived in remote or very remote areas, down from 79.7% as at June 2011. This decline reflected a general trend nationally of declining Aboriginal population in remote areas and a related increase in Aboriginal population in urbanised regions.
• Nevertheless, a far greater proportion of the NT’s Aboriginal population live in remote and very remote areas than the jurisdiction with the next highest proportion (Western Australia with 38%). Nationally, the proportion of Aboriginal people living in remote and very remote areas declined from 21.3% in 2011 to 18.6% in 2016.

Population characteristics

The NT’s population accounts for about 1% of the Australian population, with the majority residing in the greater Darwin area, and the remainder dispersed over remote and very remote areas. At 30 June 2016 (ABS Census 2016), the Aboriginal population was estimated at 74,546, which represents about 30% of the Territory’s population, many of whom reside in remote and very remote areas.

The NT’s population is characterised by its young age profile, which reflects a large number of persons aged 25 to 34 years in the NT, as well as the NT’s large Aboriginal population which, based on ABS 2016 Census, had a median age of 26 years compared with 34.9 years for the non‑Aboriginal population (Chart 2).

A further characteristic of the NT’s population is males outnumber females. This is partly due to the prevalence of male‑dominated industries such as mining, construction and defence, as well as the workforce demands of major projects.

Population growth in the NT is significantly more volatile than growth in the Australian population. Over the long term, the NT’s population growth has been predominantly driven by natural increase and net overseas migration. Fluctuations in the Territory’s annual population growth rate are largely due to variations in interstate migration, which typically fluctuates with employment opportunities.

Explanatory notes

• Population statistics are based on data reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
• Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official measure of the population of Australia. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality, citizenship or legal status, who usually live in Australia, with the exception of foreign military or diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents who are overseas for less than 12 months over a 16-month period.
• Every five years, the ABS conducts a census of Australia which provides a comprehensive snapshot of Australia's economic, social and cultural make-up. It includes a count every person and household in the country and provides information on small geographic areas and population groups.
• The Department of Treasury and Finance provide quarterly population economic briefs about the NT’s resident population, and have developed population projections to the year 2046.
• The Northern Territory Population Growth Strategy 2018-2028 provides a framework for attracting people to the Territory, and encouraging those already here to stay for the long term.